Health Dividend
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Your decentralized framework for drug assessment (dFDA) costs $40M/year to run. It saves $41.5B/year in clinical trial waste. That’s 1.19M:1 returns (recommended estimate including post-safety efficacy lag elimination).
Conservative estimate: 451:1 (R&D savings only)
Here’s the breakdown.
The Math: From $41,000 to $500 Per Patient
Traditional Phase III trials cost $40,000-120,000 per patient. That’s more than a Tesla per person to find out if a pill works. The pill costs 37 cents to make. The paperwork weighs more than the patient.
The Oxford RECOVERY trial proved humans can do the same thing for $500 per patient. They tested COVID treatments on 40,000+ patients by:
- Using existing hospital staff (revolutionary concept: doctors treating patients)
- Collecting data electronically (instead of sacrificing forests to the paperwork gods)
- Focusing on what actually matters: does the patient live or die? (not “did they complete form 27-B in triplicate?”)
Your decentralized framework for drug assessment takes this model global. 80-160x cost reduction. Same quality data. Better real-world applicability. Turns out you don’t need 17 committees to ask “did the medicine work?”
Where the $50 Billion Comes From
Global clinical trial spending: $100.0B per year (and growing).
Conservative estimate: A decentralized framework for drug assessment captures 50% efficiency gains across the market.
- 50% of $100B = $50B saved annually
Optimistic scenarios show up to 95% cost reduction (like RECOVERY achieved), potentially saving $95B annually.
What $50 Billion Buys You
With the money saved every year, humans could:
- Fund 10,000 new pragmatic clinical trials (at $5M each using efficient methods)
- Test treatments for 7,000 rare diseases currently ignored (because orphan diseases aren’t profitable enough for your orphan-making economic system)
- Cut drug development time from 17 years to 3-5 years (most terminal patients don’t have 17 years, which seems like a design flaw)
- Make medicines affordable by eliminating $2.2B development costs (the $2.2B is mostly lawyers arguing about commas)
Daily Opportunity Cost
Every day we don’t implement this represents a massive societal cost: $114M in wasted trial inefficiency and 7.94B DALYs total lost to delayed treatments (7.94B ÷ 62 years = ~54.75M DALYs annually).
For detailed calculations and sensitivity analysis, see Daily Opportunity Cost of Inaction.
The Platform Cost Breakdown
Your decentralized framework for drug assessment costs approximately $40M annually to operate at scale, with a similar one-time build cost. This includes cloud infrastructure, a lean engineering team, compliance, and global integration.
For detailed cost analysis including ROM estimates, market comparables, and sensitivity scenarios, see dFDA Cost-Benefit Analysis.
ROI Scenarios
Recommended: 1.19M:1 ROI including post-safety efficacy lag elimination (most defensible using rigorous DALY-based methodology)
Conservative: 451:1 ROI (R&D savings only, NPV-adjusted over 10 years)
PRIMARY estimate: 1.19M:1 ROI (including all core benefits)
Even in worst-case scenarios (higher costs, lower adoption), the ROI remains exceptional at 66:1.
For interactive charts, sensitivity analysis, and detailed NPV calculations, see Interactive Financial Modeling & Computational Analysis.
Why This Isn’t Happening Already
Simple: The people getting rich from the current system aren’t the ones paying for it.
- CROs make billions from inefficiency
- Regulators protect their bureaucratic empires
- Pharma passes costs to patients anyway
- Patients have no power to change the system they’re dying in
Until now. Your decentralized framework for drug assessment changes the game by aligning incentives: everyone profits from efficiency.
The ROI
$40M to save $50 billion. 1.19M:1 ROI (recommended). 80x cost reduction per patient. 10,000x more trials possible.
This isn’t a moonshot. The RECOVERY trial already proved it works. The only thing left to do is scale it globally. But humans are still debating whether saving $50 billion is worth $40 million, which is like debating whether picking up a hundred-dollar bill is worth bending over.
Every day you wait costs $114M in R&D inefficiency and delays treatment for millions. But at least the paperwork is properly filed.
Further Reading
Detailed Analysis
- dFDA Cost-Benefit Analysis - Complete economic analysis with all components
- Interactive Financial Modeling & Computational Analysis - Interactive NPV/ROI calculator
- dFDA Cost-Benefit Analysis - ROM estimates, costs, and ROI
- Regulatory Mortality Analysis - Primary methodology for disease eradication delay burden 7.94B DALYs (post-safety efficacy lag elimination)